Tuesday, May 19, 2009

What are the Odds?

Last weekend, the Munchkins had to opportunity to see an outdoor performance of Herold Bell Wright's epic story, Shepard of the Hills. It was a very exciting production, complete with gunfights, buildings burning down, horses, fistfights, etc. Master Munchkin was entirely captivated.

I remember seeing the play when I was a child and still vividly recall how they played the sound of a wild cougar from a speaker in a tree near where I was sitting. In the fading darkness, I pretty much convinced myself that a real live cougar was going to jump down any second and eat me.

As I shared this memory with the Master, he thought for a second then asked, "How many people were in your row?"

Me: What?

The Master: How many people were sitting near you? 25? Because then there would have been only a 1-out-of-25 chance that the cougar would have attacked you.

Me: Well, actually there were more people than that, probably about 200 closeby.

The Master: There you go then. See? You weren't really in any danger. Because what are the odds that a cougar would jump out of a tree and attack you? It's much more likely that he would get someone else.

Me: So I shouldn't have been afraid?

The Master, shrugging: Of course not.

How can I argue with the logic of a logical 8 year old?

By the way, if you haven't read, The Shepard of the Hills, I highly recommend it!


Gina said...

That's pretty good logic for a 8 year old. I've been trying to tell my friend that for years. She is so afraid someone will break into her house while she is there. Her fear is beyond the normal. I'm always saying, "We live in a city of 400 thousand people, what are the odds they are going to pick your home." Life is short to live in fear.

I saw Shepard of the Hills years ago, it was a great performance.

Alisa said...

That is so cool! That kind of performance is my favorite thing! I ordered the show special since it's somewhat unlikely I'll be seeing it live anytime soon!

I still would have been scared because statistics aside, luck also figures into the equation.

I'm always the "lucky" one in situations like that.

MrsMama said...

Alisa - oh yeah, I forgot about "Luck". You can't compute that! :P

Gina, You're right - you do what you can to be safe then LIVE. I'm glad you got to see the Play. What a great story!

MrsMama said...

Ha! I just told the Master what Alisa said about Luck and he said, "Luck is not logical."

I kid you not.

idreamicanfly said...

I would think the odds would go up significantly if you were closest to the tree. I bet I could argue with an 8 year old. :)

If you want to know what to do if you ever do run into a cougar, just let me know. I've handled them before. I guess I should scan those photos to go with my tiger and wolf ones...